AFL Metric Sims Week 4

By Toph Kopchak Director of AFL Coverage 

PHI -3.5 64.3 % to win

ALB -7 75.2% to win

BAL -4.5 67.3% to win

Two of the three spreads are within a point of the Draft Kings and my AFL Metric sims. The Columbus Destroyers return home after an 11 year break, so that game is difficult to predict. One part of the metrics is the fan spread from Arena Fan. To see this, just go to arenafan.com and click “Pregame” under the game you want more detail on. Currently, the fans have Columbus winning by 1. For home field advantage I also gave the Destroyers 4 points compared to the standard 3. This is also the only game this week in which the opponents have already seen each other this season (W1 ALB W 35-19). The Destroyers have a new starter at QB since then in Grant Russell, who grew up a half hour from Columbus, so that’s hard to factor in as well. 

FB Mykel Benson and WR Malachi Jones are both back from “suspension” and I’m not positive if Draft Kings or the fans know what that wording usually means in “arena speak.” It could affect the changing of the spread. Most of the time it just allows players to look for a shot at moving up to the CFL or NFL. Jones had a workout with the Tennessee Titans. He is fully expected to play.

Another interesting note, in the Vegas Power Rankings (statfox.com) the Valor and Soul are tied when you factor in Washington’s HFA. Neither team is in the top 2 for metric offense or defense, making the metric projected O/U of 90.5 hard to trust either way. Just 22% of games have seen 100 total points reached this season.

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